Cumulative Return: Beat The Dow versus Dow Jones Average since 2004*
Yearly performance vs. DJIA since model creation*
Actual performance (2004- ….) and simulated performance (1928-2003) versus Dow Jones Industrial Average*
Actual monthly performance since creation*
* Note on performance
Beat The Dow model was created in 2003 and was never changed afterwards. Beat The Dow website was started in February 2013. All data presented for years prior 2004 is a backtest of the model.
Dow Jones designates the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. Max is the maximum gain reached by Beat The Dow model during the year. Min is the maximum loss. Excess return is the excess return of Beat The Dow over the Dow Jones Industrial Average index.
Lever 2 is an investment strategy where $2 are invested in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for $1 in the account, i.e. the leverage is 2 during the full year. The long term chart approximates lever 2 by drawing twice the Dow Jones Industrial Average end of year performance instead of using daily performance. Therefore the long term chart overestimates the actual lever 2 performance. This is not the case for the Dow Jones Industrial and for Beat The Dow whose actual performances appears on the long term chart.
All figures are calculated based on spot market close DJIA index (Dow Jones Industrial Average index) values. They do not account for friction costs such as interest rates and transaction costs. These costs have a small negative impact on performance. The figures do not include dividends either. Dividends have a positive impact on performance.
The figures are computed assuming the exposure is adjusted daily in order to respect a leverage of -1, 1 or 2 vs the DJIA, depending on the model position. This is not practical in the real world: for instance a single CBOT E-mini Dow ($5) futures gives an exposure of 5 times the Dow Jones Industrial index value. Therefore, in the real world, the exposure can only be adjusted incrementally, one DJIA futures contract (or any other investment vehicle) at a time, while the undelying cash position varies continuously. For this reason, an investor has the choice between over exposing or under exposing his positions versus Beat The Dow model. This may impact positively or negatively the real world performance.
Figures and charts are usually updated daily.